On this day in 1962, Paul McCartney, John Lennon, and George Harrison—three fourths of what would later become the greatest band in history—decided to kick the fourth member, drummer Pete Best, out of The Beatles. According to the three, the record company thought Best was too loud and lacked timing to do a studio record. According to Best, the three were jealous of him because all the female fans liked him best.

No matter the reason, it’s safe to say the history of the world was changed with that decision. Three days later, an unknown drummer who had been playing with a group called Rory Storm and the Hurricanes, a cat named Ringo Starr, showed up to take Best’s place. And some cool stuff ensued.   

And the point of all this—it’s not just the sound of a guitar gently weeping and a good voice that can change the world. A drummer with a good beat can do it, too.

This month’s economic indicators are a lot like that: keeping the beat, holding everything together, pushing the rhythm. Making a little dent in history.

How? We’re just seeing something we’ve never seen before; the possibility of a soft landing without a recession after a period of intense inflation.

Just look for yourself. Wages? Rising. Primary jobs? Growing. Population? Increasing. Inflation? Going down. Sales? Steady. Unemployment? Lowest levels in decades. Labor force participation? Up. 

A significant recession is looking less and less likely, and that’s hard to believe. One year ago, it looked like the post-covid world and demand had overheated, and interest rates were going to need to bring things to a crashing halt. If the Feds were going to thread the needle, they were going to have to try and bring prices back to earth while not tanking demand.

And so far, they’ve done just that. In one area of the country, they’ve managed to get inflation below the 2% target rate without curbing demand. 

To be sure, we’re still not out of the woods yet. Housing is still the sticking point. And it will be for the foreseeable future. The bottom line for the Black Hills and the rest of the country: we continue to need housing stock across the board, particularly for entry- and middle-income workers. For them, the beat of affording a home or rent that is more than a third of their income is a long and winding road. 

Stay safe and God-speed,

Tom

Want to see what's happening with the housing market? Be sure to check out the housing dashboard.