--->

News

April 2023 Rapid City Economic Indicators

Published Wednesday, May 31, 2023 6:00 am

The stories about Tina Turner’s resiliency are insane. Third-degree burns, a broken jaw, swallowing fifty sleeping pills, a secret kidney transplant, stroke, cancer—you name it. If it was hard, you can bet Tina Turner looked it in the eye and she faced it down. Oh—did we mention she made great music too?

Last week, Turner passed away at the age of 83. Coincidentally, it was the same week in 1984 that she released her greatest album of all time. Private Dancer, which at this writing has sold over 20 million copies. The album features some of her epic tunes, including “What’s Love Got to Do With It” and “Better Be Good to Me,” both of which hit #1 on the Billboard Hot 100.

Turner’s voice was unmatched, combining soulful intensity with a husky, soft undertone. Listen to how she varies her voice in a song like “Proud Mary,” and you’ll know what I mean.  Her voice was both chocolate and ice cream all at once.     

Unfortunately, this month’s economic indicators are nothing like Tina Turner.  First, let’s look at the relationship between wages and housing.  Wages are down almost three percent from a year ago, while housing is up in two of Rapid City’s zip codes by 13% and 18%. It doesn’t take an economist to tell you why folks are having a tough time finding and paying for homes. Wages just aren’t keeping up with the largest budget item for any family, which is always housing. 

Second, we’re also seeing some softening on other fronts year over year, including an increase in vacancy rates (higher, especially in the retail segment), hotel occupancy rates (lower), and gross sales (lower).

Finally, the labor force participation rate went down, while at the same time, the unemployment rate decreased to a record low of 1.6% (it once went to 1.7% in July of 2000).  This means that while more people found a job who were looking for one, even more people dropped out of the workforce completely. Likely more people retired, more people got discouraged and gave up on a job search, and more people started taking care of family members. No matter the reason, there are less people in the labor force than a month ago.

This doesn’t mean the sky is falling—at least not this year. There are even some who think we’re not going to hit a recession at all, pointing out that the US is still adding jobs, still growing GDP, and inflation continues to creep down ever so slowly year over year.

Are they right? Of course, no one knows. But maybe, just maybe there’s a little Tina Turner resiliency in this economy after all.