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News

December 2022 Economic Indicators

Published Thursday, January 19, 2023

This week in 1981, the band Mötley Crüe was formed. The stories about the band are crazy. Drug-fueled debauchery, alcohol-induced hedonism, and hair metal on the sunset strip—these are all themes the Crüe not only embodied but promoted for decades.

Nikki Sixx, the band’s bassist, said he wanted Motley Crüe to be the band that combined David Bowie with the Sex Pistols and thrown into a blender with Black Sabbath. And what an insane blender it truly was. Sixx himself was once pronounced clinically dead from a heroin overdose, only to be brought back to life a few hours later with two syringes full of adrenaline.

But here’s the thing—they made great music. Even if you aren’t a fan of the grunge era, you must admit Mötley Crüe brought a pop hook with heavy metal theatrics like nobody else. From their first big cowbell single in 1981, “Live Wire,” to their last megahit ballad in 1991, “Home Sweet Home,” the Crue never changed their evil ways, baby. 

They just got a little older along the way.

My personal favorite from Mötley Crüe is actually a cover of Mötley Crüe called “Time for Change” by Darrius Rucker, which the band itself said is better than the original.  

This month’s economic indicators are a lot like that—better than the original, which, in this case, continues to be the 1970s, where inflation ran wild, and so did interest rates. 

This time, however, things seem to be working out better than expected. At least that’s true for Rapid City.  

The good news keeps coming in the form of consumer spending ($758 million in one month), unemployment (2.2% last month), and construction activity ($347 million in 2022). The Rapid City area also added primary jobs last month. It even raised its labor force participation to 69.5%, which is well above the national average of 62.3%. So, dare we say, we are seeing more workers finally getting back into the workforce, which is a very good thing.

Inflation is also dropping (down to 6.5%, year-over-year) as the fed continues its aggressive interest-rate policy (prime rate now at 7.5%). This hasn’t driven the demand for homes down too dramatically, although there are 45 additional listings that weren’t there a month ago. We would have expected this to result in a little price softening, but this market is still hot. So it’s the same ol’ situation (see what I did there?) in the housing market in Rapid City.

We’re still of the opinion prices will fall about 5% at some point. The fed is unlikely to stop its rate increases for the first half of 2023, and often it just takes time for sellers to conclude that they’re not going to get the price they want and start cutting prices. But right now, they’re still living on the wild side (again, see what I did there?) and testing the market.

And really, you can’t blame them. We’ve seen some crazy times in the last year. The next six months will be no exception.

Stay safe (safer than the boys from Mötley Crüe, at least), and God-speed.

Tom