On this date in 1976, the Eagles released what is perhaps the greatest album of all time, Hotel California, and with it, one of the most influential songs ever made. The Michael Jordan of classic rock songs. The title track of the same name: “Hotel California.”
There’s nothing to say about this song that hasn’t been said already, so let me preface this by saying: nobody knows what the song means. Don Henley, the lead singer of the band, has stated that the song has a lot of themes. Such as the loss of innocence, perils of fame and excess, illusion versus reality, corruption, and the balance of work and life, among others.
In other words, the song can mean anything to anybody.
If you ask me, these are some of the greatest lyrics of all time. For example, the lyrics “some dance to remember, some dance to forget,” or the way the song ends with the lyrics “you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.” That kind of work makes a poet jealous, and a nation stop and listen.
The song has been covered by hundreds of artists, including the Gypsy Kings (in Spanish). It’s also famous for being featured in a bowling scene in the cult classic movie The Big Lebowski.
This month’s economic indicators are a lot like that—hard to know the meaning. On the one hand, inflation is beginning to drop from the previous month (see the gas prices lately?). Consumer spending remains strong at almost $800 million a month in Rapid City. Building permits, valuations, and primary jobs are still strong. But on the other hand, workforce participation and the cost of housing are still a concern. People just aren’t getting back into the workforce for all the reasons we’ve discussed before: early retirement, lower fertility rates, and lack of childcare.
The feds continue to talk about rate increases, but a little less forcefully. Is it enough to tame inflation below 5%? And at what point do those rates slow down consumer spending?
Or do they? We’ve spoken before about the strong chance of a lingering recession. Still, right now, we’re seeing at least the slight possibility of a light at the end of the tunnel. It could deliver a softer landing than anticipated last month, where housing prices dip about 10%, consumer demand only dips slightly, inflation goes back to 3 to 4%, and interest rates begin dropping again.
It’s a small possibility, but perhaps there’s some meaning there after all.